The AFC North since this time last year has gone from a division featuring an up and coming but unproven Lions’ team and really little else to the home of Super Bowl contenders and top to bottom the most competitive division in the entire NFL.
The buzz in Motown is “Super Bowl or Bust” for Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions this season. After blowing a lead to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship are the favorites in the division and for good reason. The coaching staff returns largely intact. On paper, the roster looks to be even better than the version that was 15 minutes from the Super Bowl.
2024 is an election year and Jared Goff may well earn your vote for NFL MVP. Surrounded by weapons including Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown and playing behind a stout offensive line anchored by two All-Pros, Goff may well overcome the label of “game manager” if he can lead an improved Detroit offense that ranked as a Top 5 unit a season ago.
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Green Bay smashed Dallas and could well have taken out San Francisco in last year’s playoffs. Jordan Love and his mates took a major step finishing the regular season strong and humiliating the Cowboys in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. Packers Nation expects Love to become elite this season and for the Packers resurgence to continue.
The biggest question for this team is in the secondary. Can they cover the wideouts on their schedule? They will be tested from Week 1 as A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Justin Jefferson in the first few weeks alone. Also, as good as Love was to close the season, he will need to take another step this season if Green Bay is to compete against the 49ers, Eagles, and Lions.
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Minnesota seems to be a trendy play to be one of the surprise teams of the upcoming campaign. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell kept the Vikings in the mix despite no plausible answer at quarterback once Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Sam Darnold is better than any of the backups that finished last season for Minny.
Defensively, Brian Flores is as good a coordinator as there is in the league. Yes, Danielle Hunter walked but Jonathan Greenard was signed as a free agent and Dallas Turner was drafted with the second of the Vikes’ first round picks. Minnesota may have overpaid for Turner, but if he turns into the best defensive player in this draft class – and he could - he will have been worth it.
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The Chicago Bears to exceed their win total and make the playoffs are two of the more popular plays in the entire league. The Bears’ offseason has seen many a weapon added to this squad. They have a new starting quarterback in Caleb Williams, a couple new wideouts in Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze will all help the offense. The defense has not added as many new pieces. They will look to simply build on the momentum with which they finished last season ranked 5th in the entire league.
The underlying question that will get answered re: Matt Eberflus’ ability to drive the bus. Does he have what it takes to get this Bears into the conversation in the division? That question will be answered in the coming months.
Speaking of answers, let’s hear from NBC Sports Analyst Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports). Vaughn has researched each team’s roster and schedule in conjunction with a dive into the Futures Market. Here are his Best Bets for the NFC North.
AFC North
- NFC North Odds: +265 | NFC Odds: +1400 | Super Bowl Odds: +3000
- Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (3rd Season) | 2023 Record: 7-10 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
- Best Bet: Caleb Williams to lead rookies in passing yards (+100)
- Kyler Murray (2019) was the last No. 1 overall pick to win NFL OROY and Cam Newton (2011) before him.
- I like Jayden Daniels (+550) and Marvin Harrison Jr.'s (+700) odds over this year’s No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams for Rookie of the Year (+135).
- If you want one way to back Williams, it would be for him to lead the rookies in passing yards, which is likely a 50-50 bet between Williams and Daniels.
- NFC North Odds: +150 | NFC Odds: +550 | Super Bowl Odds: +1200
- Head Coach: Dan Campbell (4th Season) | 2023 Record: 12-5 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
- Best Bet: Aidan Hutchinson for DPOY (+1000)
- 11.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, two recovered fumbles, one interception, and seven pass deflections in 2023.
- 21 sacks and four interceptions over the last two seasons.
- The 23-year-old is only going to get better and will likely be a Top 5 candidate each season for the next five years or so.
- NFC North Odds: +210 | NFC Odds: +800 | Super Bowl Odds: +1900
- Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (6th Season) | 2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
- Best Bet: Matt LaFleur for Coach of the Year (+900)
- The Packers closed last season as one of the “IT” teams heading into 2024 after dominating Dallas in the playoffs.
- Moved on from Aaron Jones (Vikings) and was replaced by Josh Jacobs (Raiders), who will pair well with AJ Dillon.
- That move to Jacobs should assist in the continued development of Jordan Love and thus enhance the profile of Matt LaFleur.
- NFC North Odds: +1000 | NFC Odds: +3500 | Super Bowl Odds: +8000
- Head Coach: Kevin O’Connell (3rd Season) | 2023 Record: 7-10 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 6.5
- Best Bet: JJ McCarthy to be Vikings’ Week 1 starter (+200)
- J.J. McCarthy is competing against Sam Darnold.
- McCarthy was the No. 10 overall pick after winning a National Championship with Michigan
- Darnold has now spent time on four different NFL rosters.
- Darnold has 27 TDs and 27 INTs in the last four years and hasn’t thrown for more than 10 TDs in a season since 2019.
- J.J. (McCarthy) to J.J. (Jefferson) is destined to become a thing.
Up Next: Betting the AFC North.
Stay tuned.
Previously:
Betting the AFC South
Betting the NFC South
Betting the NFC West
Betting the AFC West
