For those who have buried Russell Wilson following his two-year stint in Denver, you may want to reconsider. Yes, there were issues in Year 1, and they were well-documented. Wilson’s performance this past season, however, was on par with his time in Seattle. We will get into those numbers shortly but if Wilson performs as he did in 2023, the AFC North could be as competitive a division as there is in the entire NFL.
Let’s start with the defending champs in the division, the Baltimore Ravens. It is Year 2 of the Todd Monken / Lamar Jackson partnership. Both parties should be better this campaign especially with Derrick Henry joining the MVP in the Ravens’ backfield. If there is an issue with the Baltimore offense it will be with in front of that duo as the offensive line will feature three new starters in 2024.
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The Ravens’ defense should remain strong despite the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald and weakside linebacker Patrick Queen. They may not reach the heights of a year ago when they led the entire NFL in sacks (60), takeaways (31), and points allowed (16.5), but Roquan Smith and co. may come close. And Baltimore is still home to the most clutch and accurate kicker in NFL history, Justin Tucker.
Joe Burrow’s return to duty under center has Cincinnati planning on a deep playoff run in 2024. Ten games into last season, Burrow underwent season-ending wrist surgery. While Jake Browning played well at times for the Bengals, Burrow’s return legitimizes talk of dethroning Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. As optimistic as Cincy is, there is also a sense of urgency as many expect this will be the last season the firm of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins work together.
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The Cleveland Browns are led by the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett. Their defense will dictate just how good they can be as it is hard to imagine Deshaun Watson taking a step forward after two unproductive and injury-plagued seasons under center for Cleveland. In 12 games with the Browns over the past two seasons, Watson has played a mere 12 games and thrown just 14 touchdown passes along with nine interceptions. A healthy Jack Conklin back at tackle and the return of Nick Chubb to eh backfield are massive keys to this team’s success.
As mentioned to open this discussion, Russell Wilson’s second season in Denver was not great but pretty good. The veteran completed 66.4% of his passes and threw for 26 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. Yes, Wilson threw for barely 3000 yards, but he was efficient. Former Falcons’ Head Coach Arthur Smith is charged with making this offense go. The line added potentially two starters in Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier so it may take time for that unit to gel.
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Expectations are high for the Steelers’ defense and why not considering the names littered throughout the lineup. T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward lead the push along the line while linebacker Patrick Queen comes over from Baltimore and Minkah Fitzpatrick returns from the injured list to roam in the secondary.
Lets dive into the numbers with NBC Sports’ Betting Analyst Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports). He has researched the rosters and schedules of each of these teams and has found a wager worth considering for each team as we sit a few weeks from the start of training camp.
- AFC North Odds: +130 | AFC Odds: +500 | Super Bowl Odds: +950
- Head Coach: John Harbaugh (17th Season) | 2023 Record: 13-4 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
- Best Bet: Ravens to miss the playoffs (+205)
- The Ravens have similar odds (-260) to the Falcons (-240) to make the playoffs, which is a red flag.
- Baltimore added 30-year-old Derrick Henry as the lead back on offense...and that is it. Behind a new offensive line, they are one injury away from being in serious trouble.
- No Bye Week until Week 14 is a challenge in a physically demanding division like the AFC North.
- Getting +200 or better is a calculated and worthwhile sweat.
- AFC North Odds: +145 | AFC Odds: +700 | Super Bowl Odds: +1300
- Head Coach: Zac Taylor (6th Season) | 2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
- Best Bet: Joe Burrow for Most Passing Yards (+850) or TDs (+850)
- With no Joe Mixon (Houston) in Cincy, Joe Burrow will be airing it out frequently as his two main weapons, WRs JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins, are back and under contract.
- Burrow had 34 and 35 passing touchdowns in his two healthy seasons, plus 520 and 606 passing attempts.
- The Revenge Tour could be a Career Year for Joey Brr.
- AFC North Odds: +600 | AFC Odds: +2200 | Super Bowl Odds: +4000
- Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (5th Season) | 2023 Record: 11-6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
- Best Bet: Under 2.5 Division Wins (+155)
- Cleveland has won exactly three games in the AFC North every single year since 2018.
- Cleveland’s schedule is especially brutal in 2024.
- After the Week 10 bye, the Browns play the Saints, Broncos, Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, Ravens, and their arch-rival Pittsburgh Steelers twice with five of the seven coming on the road.
- Santa won’t be stopping in Cleveland this year.
- AFC North Odds: +850 | AFC Odds: +2800 | Super Bowl Odds: +5000
- Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (18th Season) | 2023 Record: 10-7 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
- Best Bet: TJ Watt - Defensive Player of the Year (+550)
- Watt probably should have won this award more than once (2021).
- Led the NFL in sacks last season with 19.
- With LB Patrick Queen added to the mix, Watt should have even more opportunities to wreak havoc in opposing backfields all season and voters love stats and especially sacks.
Up Next: Betting the AFC East.
Stay tuned.
Previously:
Betting the NFC North
Betting the AFC South
Betting the NFC South
Betting the NFC West
Betting the AFC West
