NFL 2024: AFC East Analysis, Odds, and Best Bets

Every division in the NFL features a team or two with a question at quarterback. The AFC East is a division with quarterback questions at every stop.

The Mac Jones Era in New England is in the rearview mirror. How quickly will the Drake Maye era begin? Can Josh Allen and the Bills avoid another playoff meeting…and loss…to their kryptonite? With Tyreek Hill beginning to whisper about his next deal and OBJ joining the glut of wideouts in South Beach, can Tua keep all happy? Can Aaron Rodgers come back from the torn Achilles at age 40 and lead a loaded Jets’ roster to their first playoff berth since 2010?

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Jerod Mayo takes over in New England for the Hall of Famer, but the cupboard is bare. Not much talent on this roster. That fact leads to the debate of when to start Drake Maye. Do reps trump all or does it hurt him to play behind a shaky offensive line while average wideouts just do not create space?

With four straight division titles and five straight playoff appearances, Josh Allen and the Bills have earned the benefit of the doubt that they will find a way but this season without a doubt will be their most challenging. The subtraction of Stefon Diggs may be a positive for that locker room but his production on the field must be replaced. Wide receiver #2 Gabe Davis’ production is also gone. Yes, the defense has let the Bills down in the playoffs, but the secondary is gone. Their sack leader, Leonard Floyd is gone. Linebacker Matt Milano is a star but can’t stay healthy. Same with Von Miller.

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The Jets are the team with probably the greatest variance in the AFC East. They are a team of “ifs” – if Rodgers can stay healthy, if the offensive line can come together, if the defense can mount a consistent pass rush despite losing Bryce Huff, etc… No question Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and the rest of the Jets are salivating at the thought of what could be as the team looks to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2010.

Enough conjecture. Let’s turn things over to NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) who has done a deep dive into the rosters and schedules of the four teams in the AFC East. He offers bettors a smart wager for each of the four.

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Buffalo Bills

• AFC East Odds: +170 | AFC Odds: +700 | Super Bowl Odds: +1200
• Head Coach: Sean McDermott (8th Season) | 2023 Record: 11-6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
• Best Bet: Dalton Kincaid over 750.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Kincaid caught 73 balls on 91 targets in his rookie season in Buffalo.
• I like this play as much for the 673 yards he gained in 2023 as for the catches and targets.
• Why? He did that with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and Josh Allen’s familiarity with them. Those wideouts are no longer on the Bills.
• He’ll be a primary target this season while the wide receiving trio of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel find their footing in Orchard Park.
• Eclipsing the 750-yard mark should happen with games to spare.
  
  

Miami Dolphins

• AFC East Odds: +200 | AFC Odds: +1100 | Super Bowl Odds: +2200
• Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (3rd Season) | 2023 Record: 11-6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
• Best Bet: Over 9.5 wins (-122)
• With a healthy Tua and Tyreek, this is one of the top offenses in the NFL.
• Add in Year 2 with the speedy Devon Achane and the ever-reliable Raheem Mostert in the backfield and the Fish may put up even more points than the 496 (#2 in the NFL) they totaled in 2023.
• Defensively, they are a Top 5 unit. The Bills, Jets, and Patriots are all at risk of regression, making it six winnable games for the Dolphins before they step outside the East.

New England Patriots

• AFC East Odds: +2500 | AFC Odds: +9000 | Super Bowl Odds: +15000
• Head Coach: Jerod Mayo (1st Year) | 2023 Record: 4-13 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 4.5
• Best Bet: Fewest wins in the NFL (+340)
• The Pats were one of four teams that won four games or fewer last season. Their talent level is at best no better this season.
• In a few of those games, it’s safe to say Bill Belichick was the reason they pulled through. Now there’s a changing of the guard and Jerod Mayo has taken over as Head Coach and there will be a learning curve.
• While Drake Maye is the future, I expect Jacoby Brissett starts the season for the Pats, and Maye takes over later in the season when they have started 0-6.
• Yes, six straight losses to open the Mayo Era as they play the Bengals, the Seahawks, the Jets, the 49ers, the Dolphins, and finish that six-game gauntlet against the Texans.
• At 0-6 you can start to hedge off or pile on the Pats to win the fewest games in the NFL in 2024.

New York Jets

• AFC East Odds: +190 | AFC Odds: +1100 | Super Bowl Odds: +2000
• Head Coach: Robert Saleh (4th Season) | 2023 Record: 7-10 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
• Best Bet: Breece Hall Offensive Player of the Year +1500
• Hall’s numbers last season behind a bad offensive line and zero quarterback play: 994yds. rushing, 591yds. receiving, and 9 TDs.
• The offensive line has been rebuilt through free agency (Smith), trades (Moses), and the draft (Fashanu).
• Expectations are for Aaron Rodgers to return and play a full season. The threat of his presence in the backfield should create space for Hall.
• The motivation to win and get paid is real as Hall preps for Season 3.

Up Next: Betting the NFC East.
Stay tuned.

Previously:
Betting the NFC North
Betting the AFC North
Betting the AFC South
Betting the NFC South
Betting the NFC West
Betting the AFC West