It feels like the Euro Cup just started a week ago. Yet, after 50 matches, the final is here. This Sunday at 3:00 PM ET, the 2024 Euro Cup final kicks off in Berlin, Germany, at the Olympiastadion Berlin. Spain and England are the last two standing.
While I root for fireworks, I have a hard time seeing any. Cup finals are generally slow and calculated. Much like a heavyweight match, the teams are figuring their opponents out and getting a feel for the match. Unless we get a goal early to open things up, I don’t expect many goals in the first half.
Despite my predictions of possible slow play and lack of early fireworks, I have one bet I am firing away for this match.
Euro Cup 2024 Final Best Bet
I’ll answer the important question first. Who do I think will lift the cup? Spain (-143). However, I’m not fully prepared to bet on them at minus odds when England have the squad more than capable of getting the job done.
From a number’s standpoint, it’s hard not to love Spain. Their side has been fluid in attack. Their players interchanging and creating brilliant link-up play has been something to marvel at. They have scored a tournament-high 13 goals with an average xG of 1.83. Defensively, they have been equally as sound, conceding just three goals.
Goals have not been as easy for England to come by. They have scored seven goals on an average xG of 0.88. To put it in perspective, England’s average xG of 0.88 is lower than Luton Town’s (1.23) accumulated this season in the Premier League.
From the eye test, it’s Spain’s to lose.
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My best bet is not on the side or the total. Nor is it on either team to advance. My favorite bet is in the corner market. Specifically, Spain -0.5 1H Corner Handicap (-105).
Generally, in a match of this magnitude with two equally ranked sides, I would pass on the corner handicap. However, the numbers here are staggering.
Spain have won five of the six first-half corner handicaps. England have gone 3/3. Tactically, England do not set up well to win corners. They don’t send long crosses in from wide, nor are they a high-shot-volume team.
As I stated earlier, Spain’s attack is much more fluid. They shoot and hit the target. In their six matches, they have registered 37 shots, while England have 19. Spain have another 43 shots off-target. They also have more crosses (104-91).
This sets up for Spain to possess and outshoot England early in the match, regardless of the score.
Bet: Spain -0.5 First Half Corner Handicap (-105)