Betting the NFL 2024: NFC Win Totals

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NBC Sports Staff,

By
NBC Sports Staff

Published July 15, 2024 02:53 PM

The NFC has some new faces in key places in 2024. Notable additions include: Kirk Cousins landing in Atlanta…along with Michael Penix, Jr. Saquon Barkley joining Jalen Hurts in the Eagles’ backfield in Philadelphia. Both are under the direction of first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Just one year removed from leading the NFL in rushing, Josh Jacobs taking over in the backfield for the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers are getting ready to run it back in the Bay Area. Same deal for Jared Goff and the Lions in Motown.

NBC Sports Betting Analysts Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) and Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) researched every NFC roster, schedule, and coaching staff. Here are their findings and recommendations as we look at the Projected Win Totals for each of the 16 teams of the NFC.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

2023 Record: 11-6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
Despite winning 11 games last season, the Eagles struggled defensively, most notably in the secondary.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson returns to the nest to help strengthen the secondary.
LB Devin White was signed in free agency to quarterback the defense.
Those improvements plus the signing of Bryce Huff to assist the pass rush should put this team firmly in the Super Bowl contender category.
Brad’s Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10.5 Wins (-134)

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Dallas Cowboys

2023 Record: 12-5 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
The line on the Cowboys is quite insane. At this price, whether you think they regress or not you must play.
The Cowboys have hit this line in every season for the past three seasons.
A member of the NFC East and playing the NFC South gives them a handful of very winnable games.
Brad’s Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys OVER 10.5 Wins (+164)

Washington Commanders

2023 Record: 4-13 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 6.5
The Commanders defense will take a major step under the influence of new head coach Dan Quinn.
Rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels taking over at quarterback should give them more life on down the field throws.
Brad’s Best Bet: Washington Commanders OVER 6.5 Wins (-110)

New York Giants

2023 Record: 6-11 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 6.5
They got rid of Saquon Barkley and his 1100 all-purpose yards.
This team only scored 15.6 points per game last season with a Top 5 running back.
With him gone, it puts too much pressure on Daniel Jones’ shoulders.
The Giants will be terrible. They could have the worst record in the NFL by season’s end.
Brad’s Best Bet: New York Giants UNDER 6.5 Wins (-150).

NFC North

Chicago Bears

2023 Record: 7-10 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
There is a lot of hype in Chicago after the drafting of Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze.
Combine that Draft with the signing D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, Montez Sweat, Tremaine Edmunds, Kevin Byard III, and plenty more.
With all the new talent in the building, chemistry will have to be built and that will take time.
I don’t see a Houston Texans 2.0 situation in Chicago.
Dalzell’s Dish: Chicago Bears UNDER 8.5 Wins (+130)

Read More: Berry’s Best 150

Minnesota Vikings

2023 Record: 7-10 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 7.5
Minnesota is coming off a seven-win season with Kirk Cousins under center.
They will roll with Sam Darnold or rookie JJ McCarthy at QB in 2024.
No need to examine the drop-off at QB as the defense took a hit in free agency and the schedule is one of the more difficult in the league.
Dalzell’s Dish: Minnesota Vikings UNDER 7.5 Wins (-170)

Detroit Lions

2023 Record: 12-5 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
The Lions return a stacked roster that loves the dedicated coaching staff.
Detroit is the best team in the NFC North.
The Lions to win 11 or more games is a good bet as they should be in contention for the top seed in the NFC this season.
Dalzell’s Dish: Detroit Lions OVER 10.5 Wins (-134)

Green Bay Packers

2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
Green Bay showed a lot of promise in the playoffs laying the smackdown on Dallas and controlling the majority of the game in San Francisco before losing by 3.
That run took Jordan Love to the next level. He is finding his stride.
The addition of Josh Jacobs should rejuvenate the Packers’ run and short passing games.
The Packers will be dangerous.
Dalzell’s Dish: Green Bay Packers OVER 9.5 Wins (-138)

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

2023 Record:12-5 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 11.5
The 49ers remain one of the most loaded rosters in the NFL and 11-1 in the NFC West over the last two seasons. The schedule isn’t ideal, but coming off a 13-3 season, there shouldn’t be much of a drop-off in San Francisco.
Dalzell’s Dish: San Francisco 49ers OVER 11.5 Wins (+116)

Los Angeles Rams

2023 Record: 10-7 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
Word on the street is Matthew Stafford and the duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy.
If true, the Rams are ready.
The Rams’ defense improved down the stretch...but now must find a way forward without Aaron Donald.
If Stafford stays on the field and the defense does overcome the loss of Donald, LA may in fact sneak into the playoffs.
Dalzell’s Dish: Los Angeles Rams OVER 8.5 Wins (-144)

Seattle Seahawks

2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 7.5
I expect QB drama this season with Geno Smith and Sam Howell battling for reps.
That quarrel will overshadow a talented group of wideouts and running backs.
The defense is young and has some potential stars developing.
However, I expect a losing season and third-place finish for Seattle as the bye week isn’t until Week 10 and five of the final eight games come against division opponents.
Dalzell’s Dish: Seattle Seahawks UNDER 7.5 Wins (+112)

Arizona Cardinals

2023 Record: 4-13 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 7.5
Arizona drafted a No. 1 WR in Marvin Harrison Jr.
Not much else worth believing in or betting on when it comes to the Cardinals.
Kyler Murray still has much to prove.
The NFC West has owned the Cardinals over the last two seasons (Arizona is 1-11 in the NFC West).
Dalzell’s Dish: Arizona Cardinals UNDER 7.5 Wins (-152)

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 7.5
This is an organization going in the wrong direction.
It has been an uphill battle to get back atop the division after losing Drew Brees and Sean Payton.
I think the ship will continue to sink before they figure out their identity.
The defense is OK, but nothing more ranking 11^th in defensive rating via PFF.com and 15^th in defensive DVOA via FTN Fantasy.
Offensively, amongst a myriad of issues, Derek Carr struggles to stay healthy.
With the other teams in the division improving, the Saints could be in for a long season.
Brad’s Bet: New Orleans Saints UNDER 7.5 Wins (+100).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Record: 7.5
No bigger surprise in the league last season than Baker Mayfield.
New OC Liam Cohen inherits Mayfield under center and a better than average corps of wide receivers.
Cohen’s success at Kentucky bodes well for the Buccaneers’ offense to take a big step in 2024.
Defensively, the line and secondary are stacked with quality veterans.
This team could challenge for the division title once again.
Brad’s Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 7.5 Wins (-150)

Carolina Panthers

2023 Record: 2-15 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 5.5
Looking at the schedule, where do they find six wins?
How do they protect Bryce Young without massive improvements on their offensive line?
Outside of the Commanders’ Sam Howell, no quarterback was sacked more than Young.
Finally, but most importantly, can Bryce Young really take that big of a step in his 2nd season in Charlotte?
Brad’s Bet: Carolina Panthers Under 5.5 Wins (+102)

Atlanta Falcons

2023 Record: 7-10 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
The Falcons have made significant changes this offseason ed by the signing Kirk Cousins to a massive four-year, $180M deal.
Is Cousins worth three wins? He certainly is a massive upgrade from Desmond Ridder.
His ability to push the ball down the field should exponentially open up the run game.
The defense may be no better than in 2023, but the offense should put up far more points in 2024 than they did a year ago.
Brad’s Bet: Atlanta Falcons OVER 9.5 Win (-143)

Looking for the AFC win totals? Try here.

Trying to avoid the heat and humidity, stay indoors or poolside and enjoy the Best Bets in the NFL Futures Market for every team according to Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) and Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports).

Betting the NFC East
Betting the AFC East
Betting the NFC North
Betting the AFC North
Betting the AFC South
Betting the NFC South
Betting the NFC West
Betting the AFC West