MLB royalty has descended upon Arlington for tonight’s All-Star Game. Yes, rookie phenom Paul Skenes’ star is arguably shining more brightly than the rest. OK, maybe Judge and Ohtani are still bigger stars.
At the very least, the Mustache has grabbed America’s attention. Skenes is still dating Livvy Dunne, but that is no longer his link to fame. His star shines brightly on its own following an historically dominant first two months in major league baseball. In 11 starts, Skenes has given up 14 earned runs over 66 innings while striking out an amazing 89 opposing hitters.
While its not surprising that the Buc’s right-hander is among the favorites (+500) for the National League Cy Young Award, Skenes was actually north 100:1 prior to the season for even NL Rookie of the Year. Today he is -1200 at some books to take home the honor.
Read More: Dalzell talks betting the NL Cy Young market
On the most recent edition of Bet the EDGE, the boys discussed the meteoric rise of the rookie and the Futures Market he now has a strangle hold on.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) laughed at the thought of anyone even challenging the flamethrower who was only called up from the minors on May 11th.
“(Skenes) should probably be like -12000…If you’re going to take a shot against him, I would only look at position players. I don’t think realistically, any of the other pitchers can do enough now to change the narrative in their favor. I think Skenes in general is just going to run away with this in part because it’s kind of the only fun story to tell in baseball. It doesn’t really feel like there’s much buzz going on outside of Skenes, you know, arrival this year. And I think just in general, that should help push him pretty clear of the field in this market.”
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) is not running to the window to bet Skenes. The value is not only long gone on the Mustache, but as Jay explained, it actually now lies with others in the race.
“In general, I would rather be against any pitcher for any award who’s -1200 at the All-Star Break, just because of the amount of volatility and the position and the injury risk. The thing with Rookie of the Year, though, is you don’t need as much volume, and I think with Skenes, it’s not even a matter of him staying healthy or avoiding any innings limit, which supposedly doesn’t exist for the rest of the season. If you just last another month, I think if you last four more weeks, it might just be done. If he can get to 100 innings, maybe like, high 90s in innings, if he’s going to maintain this level of dominance...”
Join the Conversation: NBC Sports and Rotoworld are live blogging the All-Star Game.
So if not Skenes, on whom would Croucher place his wager?
“If I was to throw some darts in this market, Michael Bush is 40:1. Joey Ortiz, who leads all rookies in WAR is 50:1. Those would be the two darts I’d throw. I think with this market…books have just gotten a bit lazy with how they price the rest of the market. Jackson Merrill is barely more likely to win than Bush or Ortiz, and he’s 5:1…So I think that’s just a little bit of just being obsessed with the Skenes’ price, and they’re not redistributing the rest of the Book as probably as possible, frankly. So, I would look at Bush and Ortiz, but I wouldn’t feel good about it because I think that Skenes is ultimately going to walk this in with just a little bit more health.”
Paul Skenes is undeniably the top story in baseball this season. Enjoy the All-Star Game and if you are already holding a Skenes’ ticket for NL Rookie of the Year or even NL Cy Young (NBC Sports’ betting analyst Vaughn Dalzell - @VmoneySports – is holding multiple tickets in each market), try and stop laughing so hard at the rest of the marketplace who missed their opportunity to ride with the phenom flamethrower.
Fun Fact: Paul Skenes began his college career at the Air Force Academy…as a catcher with some stints as the closer. He hit over .400 as a freshman but is was not until he began starting games as a sophomore that the rest of the college world took notice. He transferred to LSU and blossomed into the most dominant starting pitcher in the college game.
