2023 Stats (rank)
Offensive Summary
Points per game: 23.8 (8th)
Total yards per game: 359.3 (7th)
Plays per game: 64.4 (11th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 36.3 (14th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.09 (11th)
Rush attempts per game: 28.1 (12th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.02 (8th)
Coaching Staff
The Los Angeles Rams’ storied coaching turnover continued this offseason, with five staff members taking their talents elsewhere. Notable departures include former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and former quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator Zac Robinson, who respectively filled the Atlanta Falcons’ vacant head coach and offensive coordinator roles. Yet head coach Sean McVay retained offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, so the overall offensive philosophy should remain the same.
McVay relies on three-wide receiver sets (11 personnel) for his base offense, leading the league in 11 personnel snaps in five-of-seven regular seasons since his 2017 hiring, though his commitment to using motion varies. McVay’s recent embrace of the latter tactic coincides with LaFleur’s arrival, resulting in the regular season’s highest 11 personnel snap count (1,086) and second-highest use of motion (780). Across the full NFL season, the Rams finished ninth in success rate (35.7 percent), sixth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.053) and seventh in positive EPA rate (46.5 percent). Fantasy managers should expect continued success from the Rams, who employ one of the league’s most fantasy-friendly, high-volume offensive units.
Passing Game
QB: Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo
WR: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell
WR: Cooper Kupp, Jordan Whittington
WR: Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson
TE: Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen
Matthew Stafford remains a prolific passer entering his age-36 season, ranking top-seven in average time to throw (2.59 seconds), past-the-sticks throwing rate (44.9 percent) and yards per passing attempt (7.8), ranked among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 270 dropbacks in 2023. His inability to produce on the ground (21/65/0) helps explain why he finished as a QB1 just four times last year. Stafford is a matchup-based fantasy starter for re-draft purposes.
Cooper Kupp first cleared the 1,000-yard receiving threshold in 2019 and is one of just 32 NFL wide receivers to earn at least 415 targets since the beginning of that season. His 2.35 yards per route run (YPRR) average during that span ranks fifth among qualifying players. Kupp impressively maintained a 1.77-yard per-route average last year despite spending Weeks 1-4 rehabilitating a Grade 2 hamstring strain before spraining his ankle in Week 11. Thanks to 2023 breakout campaigns from Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, Kupp enters 2024 as his weekly opponent’s third point of interest. Should Kupp’s third-round, WR20 best ball ADP carry over into re-draft season, he should have little issue returning value in a renaissance season, operating in the Rams’ No. 2 pass-catcher role.
Nacua dazzled in his 2023 rookie campaign, finishing top-seven positionally in targets (153), receptions (105), and yards (1,486), plus 20th in receiving touchdowns (six). Already a six-time record holder, Nacua is worth his expected first-round, WR1 price tag with a potential second-year leap loading.
Journeyman Demarcus Robinson, the primary beneficiary of McVay’s 11 personnel fervor, cemented himself as the 2024 incumbent after ousting last year’s No. 3 wide receiver Tutu Atwell mid-season. Robinson made his case via a four-game scoring stretch in December that included two 10-target outings. McVay pampered Robinson with pre-playoff starter treatment in Week 18, resting him after just 26 snaps–three less than Nacua. Atwell conversely logged a wide receiver corps-high 63 offensive snaps but caught just two-of-four targets for seven scoreless yards. Atwell later secured his lone target for a 38-yard score in the Rams’ Wild Card loss to the Detroit Lions though, reminding deep-league managers why he remains a bench-stash candidate. Robinson is a volatile, matchup-based flex play.
No. 1 tight end Tyler Higbee is all but guaranteed to start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list after suffering Grade 3 ACL and MCL tears on January 14th. The MCL tear reportedly delayed his surgical ACL reconstruction (ACLR), pushing his minimum nine-month ACLR recovery window well into the regular season.
General manager Les Snead made free agent Colby Parkinson the position’s 16th-richest player in average annual value but in an early-July appearance on Jorge Martin’s Familia FFB show, award-winning beat reporter Jourdan Rodrigue named 2023 fifth-round draft pick Davis Allen the team’s tight end “sleeper.” Rodrigue noted Allen’s “significant mental workload” in organized team activities, echoing her chosen phrase from Nacua’s 2023 spring showing. Allen’s 12-target sample size is undeniably small but he demonstrated respectable efficiency on a per-route basis (15.3 percent target rate and 1.45 YPRR) while securing 92.3% of targets, second-best among his positional peers with at least 12 targets in 2023.
Running Game
RB: Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Ronnie Rivers, Zach Evans
OL (L-R): Alaric Jackson, Jonah Jackson, Steve Avila, Kevin Dotson, Rob Havenstein
The Rams’ offensive line returns four-of-five starters, keyed by right-side bulldozers, right guard Kevin Dotson (88.4 PFF run-blocking grade) and right tackle Rob Havenstein (85.6 PFF run-blocking grade). Among 85 combined guards and tackles with at least 850 offensive snaps in 2023, both Dotson and Havenstein grade out as top-six run blockers. Promising second-year lineman Steve Avila returns to his 2021-to-2022 position (center) after playing his final college season and first NFL season at left guard.
Kyren Williams logged the position’s ninth-highest regular season snap sum (677) and finished as the points-per-reception (PPR) RB7 (255.0 points) despite spending four games on injured reserve. Williams ran the ball well, ranking top-eight among 34 NFL running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.21), yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.3), yards per rushing attempt (5.0) and first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate (27.0 percent). He was dreadfully inefficient as a receiver, ranking bottom-two among 33 NFL running backs with at least 40 targets in target rate (14.1 percent), YPRR (0.63) and catch rate (68.8 percent), although his 0.1-yard aDOT (tied for 13th) shows he was used as more than a dump-off option.
McVay’s backfields typically feature one high-volume player but to this point, it is unclear if the tactic is born of preference or necessity. Players like Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman hardly command touches with Todd Gurley, (a healthy) Cam Akers and Kyren Williams in-house.
The dynamic will be tested in 2024.
Enter accomplished rookie rusher Blake Corum, hot off a national championship victory operating as Michigan’s offensive focal point. Corum’s 2023 efficiency fails to impress when compared to his unanimous All-American 2022 season but a November 2022 Grade 2 MCL sprain and full meniscus tear were likely a factor in his follow-up performance. Corum’s 506/2,706/45 rushing line over the last two years ranks top-two positionally among Power Five running backs. The 5-foot-8, 205-pound Corum is not decisively better as a pass catcher but his surehandedness (89.7 percent catch rate) and his NFL-ready pass-protection skills (65.3 PFF pass-blocking grade, fifth among Power Five running backs with at least 800 offensive snaps from 2022-to-2023) pose problems for Williams.
Rodrigue notes in the interview above that the Rams plan to utilize rest days and divvy up carry shares with the goal of “maximizing [running back health and productivity] in December, and January and February,” guided by the team’s sports science department. The 5-foot-9, 194-pound Williams’ 2022-to-2024 recorded injury history now includes two foot injuries, two Grade 3 high-ankle sprains, an inguinal hip sprain and a hand fracture, as he was again sidelined by a foot issue during organized team activities (OTAs) this spring.
Williams’ status as a starting running back in McVay’s offense warrants an RB1 ADP but fantasy managers should target Corum an elite backup with potential standalone value.
Win Total
The Rams’ DraftKings Over/Under is fairly installed at 8.5 wins, given their brutal 2024 schedule and top-heavy roster construction. Aside from playing in the highly competitive NFC West, the Rams face the loaded NFC North and the rising AFC East, plus a Week 12 showdown against the Philadelphia Eagles. Schedule guru Warren Sharp calls it “the most difficult schedule of pass defenses by far” in his 2024 Football Preview. The Rams pass defense can hold its own though, with veteran cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams manning the perimeter and a promising defensive line rotation set to take over following Aaron Donald’s retirement. Betting on a nine-win season is reasonable but leaves little room for error.
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