2023 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 20.4 (21st)
Total yards per game: 329.4 (18th)
Plays per game: 65.1 (8th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 39.7 (3rd)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.02 (19th)
Rush attempts per game: 25.4 (24th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.24 (32nd)
Coaching Staff
Raiders interim head coach Antonio Pierce sent the analytically-minded Brandon Staley back to the stone age with a 63-21 decimation of the Bolts in Week 15 last year. The Chargers had a franchise quarterback on a rookie deal for the past four seasons and have one playoff appearance—an all-time meltdown loss to the Jags—to show for it. They needed to make a drastic change after firing Staley and that’s exactly what they did. LA tabbed Jim Harbaugh, hot off a national championship at Michigan, to be the team’s next head coach. Harbaugh last coached in the NFL with the 49ers. He was on the headset for four seasons and posted a 44-19-1 record, giving him one of the best win rates in NFL history. He brought along a legion of Harbaugh—Jim and John—disciples to fill out his staff and roster.
Jesse Minter is in as defensive coordinator. Minter spent the past two seasons as Michigan’s defensive coordinator and has experience in the NFL…with the Baltimore Ravens. Greg Roman is on the sticks as the offensive coordinator. Roman was Jim’s OC for all four seasons in San Francisco and later held the same role under John in Baltimore. In nine seasons as an offensive coordinator across three teams, Roman’s offenses have finished top-12 in scoring six times. Roman also wore out his welcome in Baltimore so thoroughly that Lamar Jackson told reporters in the middle of the season that opposing defenses were calling out his plays. Roman needs to develop a counterpunch and mix up his highly predictable rushing cadence if he wants to make things work this time around.
Passing Game
QB: Justin Herbert, Easton Stick
WR: Ladd McConkey. DJ Chark
WR: Joshua Palmer, Brenden Rice
WR: Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis
TE: Will Dissly, Hayden Hurst
The 2023 season had the potential to be Justin Herbert’s return to superstar form. LA had a new offensive coordinator and added Quention Johnston in the first round of the draft. While Herbert’s aDOT hit a career-high of 8.2 and so did his time to throw (2.78 seconds), the results were more of the same. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and was on pace for 4,304 yards plus 28 scores before going down with a season-ending finger injury. Herbert appeared more willing than ever to throw deep, tossing it 20+ yards downfield on 12.1 percent of his attempts according to Pro Football Focus. That was a career-high and it didn’t make a difference in the box scores. Losing Mike Williams in Week 3 and turning to Quentin Johnston as his replacement was a fatal blow to the Chargers’ passing attack.
Herbert hasn’t had a healthy receiving corps for two seasons. In 2021, when he got a combined 32 games out of Williams and Keenan Allen, Herbert threw for 5,014 yards and 38 scores. A run-run-pass philosophy will prevent him from reaching those heights this year, but Roman did make his passes count when he was in Baltimore. He has already hinted at this dynamic in an early press conference.
#Chargers OC Greg Roman on the plans for his offense:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 13, 2024
“I definitely think we want to have some balance in our offense, but we’re not just gonna run the ball into a brick wall… Sometimes, the illusion of wanting to run the ball a lot is just as powerful as the ability, too.” pic.twitter.com/zEmGUaIXE6
Lamar Jackson ranked top-five in deep throw rate in two of his seasons under Roman and top-10 in all four of their campaigns. Jackson was also among the league leaders in play-action usage under Roman. The ceiling for LA’s offense could look similar to the 2020 Titans. Ryan Tannehill couldn’t manage 4,000 passing yards because of a lack of volume but chucked 33 scores, in part because of how pristine his big-play opportunities were.
With Williams cut and Allen traded in the offseason, an endless pit of vacated targets rests in the middle of SoFi Stadium. Johnston would be the natural choice to play a larger role if we hadn’t seen him play as a rookie. But we did. And it wasn’t good. Johnston posted the third-worst yards per route run (.84) for a first-round rookie in the past decade. His weekly average of 25.4 yards per game is also among the worst in that group of players. Johnston’s route-running was sloppy on tape and it showed in the advanced numbers. He ranked 105th in ESPN’s Open Score and 100th in NFL Next Gen’s average separation metric. Johnston was a strong YAC producer in college and needs to see more schemed touches in his second season. That’s not a profile we want to bet on for fantasy purposes, but we are getting a massive discount on a second-year receiver who went in the first round.
LA added to their barren receiver room via the draft with Georgia’s Ladd McConkey at No. 34 overall. McConkey never posted a true breakout season as a Bulldog but was absurdly efficient, averaging 3.6 YPRR in his final season and 2.7 for his career. At 6’/186, he doesn’t have alpha wide receiver size. However, he ran 69 percent of his routes from out wide and logged a 9.33 RAS between the NFL Combine and his Pro Day.
If his competition for targets was notable, McConkey’s size might have been an issue. That’s not the case though. Given his elite efficiency and athleticism, McConkey is a good bet to lead his team in targets as a rookie.
Joshua Palmer rounds out the Chargers’ starting trio of receivers. Palmer was banged-up throughout the 2023 season but played remarkably well when healthy. Williams went down with a torn ACL in Week 3. From Week 4 onward, Palmer averaged 4.3 receptions for 71 yards. That pace would have been good for over 1,200 yards in a 17-game season. He also posted 1.8 yards per route run on the year. Palmer has less season-long upside than his two highly-drafted teammates, but his floor as a starting receiver who has already proven capable of putting up fantasy points is worth buying.
DJ Chark and rookie Brenden Rice could see the field as part-time players. Their roles, however, won’t be large enough to warrant fantasy consideration in most leagues. The tight end room is similarly unappealing. LA signed Will Dissly to a three-year, $24 million contract in the offseason. He was banged up during the early portion of the offseason program, giving fellow free agent addition Hayden Hurst extra reps with the ones. Hurst reportedly showed well in OTAs. The team also brought back red zone specialist Donald Parham. The towering tight end has 11 touchdowns on 100 career targets. There could be meaningful fantasy value here if one player emerges as a full-time starter. We won’t know if that is happening until training camp, so this situation is a pass until further notice.
Running Game
RB: Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Kimani Vidal
OL (L-R): Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson, Bradley Bozeman, Jamaree Salyer, Joe Alt
The Chargers have been positioning themselves as a run-first team the entire offseason. They sent both of their top receivers packing while finding ways to keep defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the roster. Austin Ekeler was shown the door and replaced with two former Ravens in J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The Chargers also retooled their offensive line with Bradley Bozeman (another former Raven) at center and No. 5 overall pick Joe Alt at right tackle. Per PFF, the Chargers were an above-average pass-blocking unit last year but ranked 32nd in run-blocking. That will change this year and the difference will be amplified by extreme rushing volume. Harbaugh’s offenses ranked no lower than ninth in rush attempts in his four seasons as the 49ers’ head coach. He finished third two times. The team had a pass rate two percent below expected in those four seasons. Roman’s Ravens were even more run-heavy.
Edwards is the most likely beneficiary of LA’s ground-based approach. He signed a two-year, $6.5 million contract with the Chargers compared to a one-year, $1.6 million deal for Dobbins, who is coming off a torn Achilles. It’s his second season-ending injury and third major injury since entering the league. The injury and the fact that the Chargers guaranteed him a measly $50,000 at signing makes it hard to bet on Dobbins even making the roster, let alone having an outsized fantasy impact. Edwards graded out as a top-20 back in Next Gen’s yards over excepted per carry and success rate metrics in his final season with the Ravens. He is a good bet to be the top back on a run-first offense with a potentially elite offensive line. That’s worth a lot for teams in need of a steady RB2, even if he isn’t the most exciting pick on the board.
Kimani Vidal is the wild card in this backfield. The fifth-round rookie ran for 1,661 yards and 14 touchdowns on 297 carries in his final season at Troy. Pro Football Focus graded him as their No. 6 runner in 2023. Most importantly, Vidal graded out as an elite pass-blocker and averaged over 20 receptions per year across his four seasons of college ball. Vidal also tested extremely well at the combine.
Vidal enters the league as a pro-ready back with a history of shouldering the load for his team. That gives him a path to league-winning weeks over the second half of the season.
Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 8.5
Pick: Under
This line alone has the Chargers as a .500 team and that feels about right. However, Vegas isn’t giving us even juice on both sides. DraftKings has +130 on the under for a team with no receivers, no running backs, a run-first coach, and an offensive coordinator who was exposed the last time he held that role. Given the favorable odds, I like the under if forced to choose a side for the Chargers.
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